Futurology is so last year

The future isn’t what it used to be.

Someone sent me one of those “future trend” reports.

As with the majority of such reports, it’s not a view of the future so much as a summary of existing (in some case, long-existing) trends. But past performance is no indicator of future performance.

I want a cloud subscription service that lives on my own private computer and is wholly owned by me.

For example, the backlash against “the cloud” is already here. People realised it was just someone else’s computer — and not even one that was especially secure. Things kept dripping out of the cloud. So now everyone from Tonida to Lima are offering: “Your personal private cloud”. Formerly: external hard drive.

Assets not expenses

The backlash against software as a service has already begun. It turns out businesses want assets not expenses.

So please don’t tell me next year will see exciting developments in cloud software services. It won’t. And don’t tell me something exciting will happen in the “uberised” economy. People have realised that behind these oh-so cool apps — from Uber to Deliveroo — there are just a lot of breadline workers being whipped for the price of a gig.

The future belongs to those who forge new trends, not to those who regurgitate the models of yore.

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